It has been the most volatile day of oil trading in world history. The oil price spiralled to $115 (£86) a barrel at one point early on Monday, but word soon emerged of an emergency meeting of the G7 finance ministers.
Reports suggested there could be a 300 million-barrel release of emergency stockpiles co-ordinated by the International Energy Agency.
The speculation alone was enough to temper the rise in prices a bit, but they remained much higher than pre-conflict levels.
Then, however, word emerged of what sounded like a pivot away from a long-run war by US President Donald Trump, and the oil price went into free fall, dipping below Friday’s close. When Monday’s trading day started in Asia the oil price was hovering around $90.
The spiral up can be of little surprise of course when millions of barrels of crude oil are shut in to the Gulf, and when most Gulf countries are now – at best – reporting a slowing of their production, and at worst declaring force majeure shutdowns – a clause freeing them from liability for failure to supply due to events outside their control.
Three hundred million barrels is a massive number. It would have been more than double the record previous intervention made in April 2022 after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. These reserves have only been tapped five times. This would have represented a quarter of stockpiles.
